• The Harris campaign is showing new strength in must-win states ahead of the party’s convention.
  • In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.
  • It’s a reflection of the continued reset of the 2024 race after Biden’s exit.
    • SteveFromMySpace@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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      5 months ago

      Preach.

      Yes it’s all margin of error. But what I’m seeing personally is Biden was consistently 2-4% down (conservatively) in every state that mattered (which was within the margin of error) and Harris is up 2-4% in every state that matters now (which is also within the margin of error).

      I’d rather be the Harris campaign right now than the (now defunct) Biden or (panicking) Trump campaigns. Qualify it all you want folks 🤷‍♂️

      No I’m not complacent. I’m excited to vote.

        • Irremarkable@fedia.io
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          5 months ago

          I mean, click a couple links and it’s right there

          MI: 619 PA: 693 WI: 661 All of registered voters

          Using the amount of total registered voters in each respective state and a 95% CI, we get the following margins of error MI: ±3.939% PA: ±3.723% WI: ±3.811%

          Depending on the exact lead (NYT only shows round percents, not specific numbers for each response), all of those are potentially within the top end of that margin of error.

          Am I trying to claim that a swing from being down by ~4% to being up by ~4% means nothing and is indicative of nothing? Of course not. But man, most people really do not at all understand how statistics work, and I really wish people would stop talking out of their ass about it.

        • SteveFromMySpace@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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          5 months ago

          I love how any time someone wants to argue about stats they act like this information can’t possibly be obtained and talk as if the sample size must be like 7 people.