- The Harris campaign is showing new strength in must-win states ahead of the party’s convention.
- In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.
- It’s a reflection of the continued reset of the 2024 race after Biden’s exit.
If I remember this correctly, the square of the error for the sum of (or difference between) two independent measurements is the sum of the squares of the individual errors. Gauss something.
That would make the error for the 8 point swing be sqrt(2×3.8²) or about 5.4. So at least the swing is significant in each state.
Also, the error for the average of 3 variables is sqrt(e1²+e2²+e3²)/3 or 2.2 so the average lead in the 3 states is significant.
But we can’t make a significant claim about the lead in each state.