• nifty@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    15
    ·
    5 months ago

    Trump has never won the popular vote, his 2016 victory was based on highly gerrymandered areas with low populations and a high number of electoral votes. America is being held hostage by wealthy donors.

    • FundMECFSResearch@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      3
      arrow-down
      8
      ·
      5 months ago

      Yet he was leading in popular vote pols for a solid 9 months before Biden dropped out. If Biden had stayed, he would likely have won the popular vote.

        • FundMECFSResearch@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          4
          arrow-down
          6
          ·
          5 months ago

          A poll is just an estimate. Obviously we will never know. But were the election held a couple months ago (vs Biden) Trump would have about an 85% chance of winning according to the best statistical models. (Source: used to work as data scientist for a major pollster and obsess over this stuff for fun)

          • seth@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            4
            ·
            5 months ago

            What were the projected odds for Clinton beating Trump in 2016? I remembered it being nearly a sure thing in the reported research polls but I may be remembering it completely wrong.

              • seth@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                5
                ·
                5 months ago

                Yeah that’s much worse than I thought. I also remember thinking, “there’s no way that many people are so willfully ignorant and will also vote.” How wrong I was.