A poll is just an estimate. Obviously we will never know. But were the election held a couple months ago (vs Biden) Trump would have about an 85% chance of winning according to the best statistical models. (Source: used to work as data scientist for a major pollster and obsess over this stuff for fun)
What were the projected odds for Clinton beating Trump in 2016? I remembered it being nearly a sure thing in the reported research polls but I may be remembering it completely wrong.
Yeah that’s much worse than I thought. I also remember thinking, “there’s no way that many people are so willfully ignorant and will also vote.” How wrong I was.
Yet he was leading in popular vote pols for a solid 9 months before Biden dropped out. If Biden had stayed, he would likely have won the popular vote.
We’ll never know, the only “poll” which matters is the election.
A poll is just an estimate. Obviously we will never know. But were the election held a couple months ago (vs Biden) Trump would have about an 85% chance of winning according to the best statistical models. (Source: used to work as data scientist for a major pollster and obsess over this stuff for fun)
What were the projected odds for Clinton beating Trump in 2016? I remembered it being nearly a sure thing in the reported research polls but I may be remembering it completely wrong.
60% about
Problem is media reports on 60% as if it is a sure thing, when 40% is a really big chance…
Yeah that’s much worse than I thought. I also remember thinking, “there’s no way that many people are so willfully ignorant and will also vote.” How wrong I was.