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Cake day: March 8th, 2025

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  • My theory is that we’re in an ‘emperor has no clothes’ situation, where a cult of sycophants has nourished itself on a leader with a genuine case of cognitive decline, and who are too afraid, because of the sunk cost or a fear of banishment or retribution, to point out this flaw or contradict their madman.

    You see them parrot his insane talking point with such glee because the madness and fervour are contagions. Within the cult, the insanity is self perpetuating, and the longer you’re in, the crazier you become. 15 or 20 years ago, these same people probably had fairly typical views and opinions and, if confronted by their past self, would now only see a stranger or a traitor. Their past self might look at what they’ve become and wonder, “What did I do to deserve that?!”

    What I’m saying is I think Trump might be Cthulu.
















  • We may be talking past each other, but in any case, I don’t think that is a useful way of presenting this information.

    Gross domestic product calculates only for the net effect of imports and exports. That is to say, the balance of trade.

    56% of Canada’s GDP is consumer spending. 19% is investment. 23% is government spending. And 2% is net exports.

    That’s the $2.2/2.3 trillion GDP of Canada broken down. Yes, it’s technically true to say that the trade relationship represents a value roughly equivalent to 40% of Canada’s GDP, but I don’t believe that’s very helpful framing.

    Using the same method, we might say that the various trade relationships of the US represent a value that is roughly 25% of US GDP.

    If Canada’s GDP, an acronym that many people take to be synonymous with ‘economy’, was 40% US trade, we’d be talking about more than a 3% recession.

    I can’t help but think of the ‘length of a football field’ or ‘weight of an elephant’ mode of analysis.

    Also, your definition of the fallout this could create seems very limited in scope, but I take your point that you are only defining said fallout within the confines of the immediate and specific effects of the tarrifs themselves, and not all the various ripple effects.

    Otherwise, we probably agree more than we disagree. Trump’s a cunt is about what it boils down to for me.




  • While true, the Canadian government has already announced grants and loans to help Canadian companies restructure their supply chains away from the US. It’s a start. While the legal framework exists, Canadian companies haven’t yet had a reason to take advantage of new free trade agreements with the EU and the Asia Pacific. Now they do.

    Also, in terms of numbers: about 25% of Canadian GDP is based on US trade; a little lower than the number you quoted, still too high, I’d say. Hopefully, the Canadian economies’ smaller size will prove agile enough for the transition. I’ve also seen it suggested that the hit to the Canadian economy from Trump’s attacks could be offset by removing internal trade barriers so that Canada can trade more efficiently with itself. This has been a huge shot in the arm for that project.

    20% of US exports go to the EU, 18% go to Canada, 17% to Mexico, and less than 10% to China. Similarly, about 70% of US imports come from those same markets. This will be devastating for everyone, the US included. It won’t be the ‘short period of transition’ the bloated diet coke goblin imagines. World trade patterns and supply chains will literally be upended.