Summary
The New Orleans attack, where U.S. Army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar killed 14 while flying an Islamic State flag, highlights the group’s ongoing ability to inspire violence despite territorial losses.
ISIS remains active through decentralized cells, executing attacks globally, including Russia, Iran, and Somalia, and attempting a resurgence in Syria after Assad’s fall.
U.S. officials warn of lone wolf attacks, like Jabbar’s vehicle-ramming, as ISIS-Khorasan also poses risks.
Experts believe ISIS’s territorial ambitions are unlikely to succeed but caution about its capacity for widespread, random violence and influence.
Al Qaeda has always been pretty clear on their Intentions in Iraq, in 2005 they specifically outlined a 4 stage plan
Step 1: expulsion of US forces from Iraq
Step 2: establish an Islamic Caliphate in Iraq
Step 3: extending the jihad to surrounding countries
Step 4: “the clash with Israel”
So yes, they were in opposition to the US occupation, but that was more of a means to an end, not exactly altruistic Iraq freedom fighters. And around that same time they were also carrying out attacks on Iraqi tribespeople and clashing with nationalist insurgents. Yes they got somewhat more extreme over time, but like you said a lot of that can be attributed to them growing in power, and arguably dealing with the US occupation was more pressing to them at the time so that’s where most of their resources went.
And step 3 definitely seems to be in line with expanding operations into Syria.