It is a harrowing proposition: that in trying to control drug prices for 67 million Medicare patients now, we might inadvertently prevent the development of future drugs that could save lives. Implied, if not stated outright, is that we’re putting a cure for cancer or Alzheimer’s or some other intractable disease in jeopardy.
But we have good reasons to believe that the current policy won’t have such a trade-off any time soon. For one, pharma is hugely profitable, and these negotiated prices, while potentially chipping away at profit margins, should hardly entirely dampen the incentive to innovate, according to a couple of key studies of the industry. Two, if we are worried about future innovation, we should be focused on making it cheaper to develop drugs – and this is actually one area where AI is showing promise. By identifying the best candidates for possible treatments early in the research process, we could speed up development and continue to reduce costs — without losing out on tomorrow’s breakthroughs. …
The idea that better drugs will be discovered by AI is laughable, though. It can help the search, but it can’t predict the trial outcomes well. The system is too complex, and we don’t have the data.
AI will cut down the time it takes, which is still helpful.
Trust me bro. One time I saw an ai claim that it’s possible to make lsd out of sodium chloride and distilled water. It was ai generated so it must be true.