Ukraine is doing great. I know Russia is a meme, but they do have far more resources and man power. These guys are working with tech they just got trained on. Russia is well fortified. Keep in mind, the counter offensive is still developing. Often things are said publicly to skew the other side.
Yeah. this is still in the “probing” and “shaping” phase, the Ukrainians are launching attacks to see which bits of the front are softest and to force the Russians to commit their reserves so that when a breakthrough happens they have fewer options to respond with.
Just today the big news was about Ukraine blowing up a vital bridge the Russians need for resupplying their lines, for example. And yesterday I was reading an interesting analysis about how the Ukrainians might actually be able to attack across the former Kakhovka reservoir now that the Russians blew up the dam and drained it. Even if they don’t do that it might make sense for them to look like they’re considering it so that the Russians have yet more front lines they need to reinforce.
People have been spoiled by reading history books in which they can take in a summary of a years-long war in a paragraph or two, or by Desert Storm which was rather a different sort of war than this one. This offensive could take months, and it doesn’t have to have a clear “beginning” and “end” moment where one side captures a flag and declares victory over the other.
Could you link a source on those Ukranian wins you mention? I’m interested to read on those.
The only one I mentioned specifically was bombing the Chonhar bridge. Not sure how you missed that, Russian media has reported on it and Russian politicians are making threats of retaliation over it.
I really don’t think it’s just in the probing stage. Ukraine has had a lot of losses trying to punch through Russian lines and have even publicly stated they have called for an operational pause to re-evaluate their tactics.
The tactical/strategic reserves just haven’t been deployed because a breakthrough hasn’t happened yet.
Now, watch this drive
Mission accomplished
Although disappointing, not entirely unexpected. Assaulting and defending are two different things and without air or artillery superiority, the assault phase is even more difficult. So these lads are pressing in on well prepared defensive lines without a ton of battle space preparation. Hopefully, they can perform well enough, and violently enough to overcome the typical 3:1 requirement for beaching and destroying fortified positions.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/dissecting-west-point-think-tanks
“The capacity to detect and strike targets at ever-greater distances and with ever-growing precision increases the vulnerability of dense troop concentrations, and therefore limits the ability to conduct large-scale sequenced and concentrated operations. As such, in order to enhance survivability, current battlefield conditions are forcing military units to disperse into smaller formations, dig in, or both, unless these conditions are effectively countered. As a result, the battlefield tends to become more fragmented, offering more independent action to lower tactical formations as the depth of the front is expanding to a considerable extent.”
“As a survey of decades of history illustrates, Russian military strategy over the past decades has correctly forecasted a number of implications of advancements in weapons, as well as sensor technologies, that are currently affecting the character of warfare in Ukraine.”
“The operational level of war sits between tactics, which consists of organizing and employing fighting forces on or near the battlefield, and strategy, which involves aspects of long-term and high-level theatre operations, and the government’s leadership. The Soviet Union was the first country to officially distinguish this third level of military thinking, when it was introduced as part of the deep operation military theory that its armed forces developed during the 1920s and 1930s and utilized during the Second World War.”
“After the failure of the initial invasion, the subsequent period of the fighting in the Donbas was at first marked by Russian dominance in fires. Besides precision munitions, the employment of UAVs for target detection greatly enhanced the effectiveness of Russia’s large numbers of legacy artillery systems. Russian artillery batteries employing UAVs for target detection generally showed themselves capable of engaging Ukrainian positions within minutes after being detected. As a result, Ukrainian infantry companies were forced to disperse and often occupied front lines up to three kilometers wide. Consequently, battalions covered frontages that are traditionally the responsibility of brigades. Russian artillery superiority and sensor density even prevented Ukrainians from concentrating in units above company size, because anything larger would be detected prematurely and effectively targeted from a distance.”
“Russian forces also rarely employ armor and infantry in concentrated assaults and in the defense occupy dispersed positions, while increasingly drawing on artillery to blunt Ukrainian attacks.”
“However, current battlefield conditions are adding the related difficulty of achieving the concentration of forces necessary for establishing main efforts during offensive operations. This is reducing large-scale engagements and thereby necessitating a concentration and synchronization of effects, rather than a traditional physical massing of troops. In turn, this places an extra burden on command and control, especially when contested by electronic warfare. Only by disrupting the opponent’s kill chain can larger formations regain the ability to concentrate and engage in maneuver warfare. During the war in Ukraine, superiority in kill-chain effectiveness has become one of the prime objectives for both sides. In this war and any other characterized by the same dynamics, this superiority becomes an essential condition for victory.”
With a doctrine advantage, western acknowledged electronic warfare, indirect fire, and air support superiority combined with an established, modernized supply line its JOEVER
So gringos want to continue war… so sad
Big problem is the Russian air force has been holding off for just this moment. Low flying helicopters and drones are hard to hit and doing significant work defending the lines. It’s why we’ve seen a lot of helicopters downed in the last week too.
Give it time, there’ll be a solution eventually.
Sad for Ukraine. I wonder whether we’re back to WWI with long, static defensive lines and grinding, awful, slow advances.
It’s also a factor of Russia not competently executing the initial invasion and got themselves bogged down. Similar to the Germans in WW1 on the western front, they got bogged down before they could take their key objectives, but the eastern front remained mostly mobile during the war because of the vast size of the front, and they eventually won on that front. Because you either win by our maneuvering your enemy an encircling them, or attriting the hell out of them till they have nothing left, and I think the pendulum has swung again towards a defensive advantage, especially with UAVs and remote mine laying systems, and precision artillery munitions.
It’s a big part of why US doctrine is so focused on quick fast and overwhelming assaults and a strike first mentality. Even in Desert Storm they were severely worried about being bogged down by the Iraqi Army and starting a prolonged conflict with massive American losses. So it was imperative to flank the Iraqi Army from the western desert by the French Armored Corps.
We now know that Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement back in March, and Russia pulled back as a show of good faith. Then the west told Ukraine that the agreement was unacceptable and that’s how we got where we are today.
Do you have links that to sources about how that unfolded?
The imperial managers are looking for a way out, so they’re slowly allowing mainstream media to report some semblance of the truth, namely that Ukraine has absolutely no chance without participating in peace negotiations in good faith.
What nonsense is this? They are doing a great job. Assaulting heavily fortified positions is extremely hard, whoever thinks Ukraine is not fast enough probably knows nothing about shit. Just look at the Allies offensives in Europe during WW2, especially the beach landings. It took months to break the lines of defense.
They should try advance through minefields as vast as an ocean and then criticize.
It’s understandably difficult when the Ukrainians fail to make gains, but it’s Russian incompetence when they do it?
Interesting. With how poorly Russia has done so far, I think the expectation was for the counter offense to be fast and severe. I wonder if their training is better suited to holding land, if they were holding back their more competent troops from the front line, or if the soldiers are more invested in their defense than the offense.
Russia did a shit tonne of work putting in mines, trenches, and structures everywhere. They might not fight for shit, but they can dig holes and place dragon teeth. Doesn’t really require much advanced thought or tech.
Well, the quality of some of that work leaves much to be desired, in some cases. But even if it’s all crap there still is an awful lot of it so it’ll take time to clear a path.
As long as the dragon teeth aren’t hollow
Also, while the morale of russian front-line soldiers is shit, their artillery in combination with minefields are responsible for most Ukrainian losses.
That may have been the case in meme-circles, but anyone looking at the war objectively knew it was going to be slower. The Kharkiv counteroffensive only was so brutally effective, because the russian defensive lines were so weak and they didn’t have any secodary defensive lines to fall back on. Meaning that once the defense was breached, Ukrainian Humvees could just keep driving and pursiung fleeing russians.
Kherson had a better defense setup, but with the bridges over the Dnipro cut, russia couldn’t supply them.
Now, russia had time to create layered defensives and their logistics are harder to cut. The push towards the south is the most difficult offensive Ukraine has undertaken so far, so it’s only logical for it to take the longest.
There is also a difference in tactics: While russia employs zerg rushes of convicts and mobilized into fortified Ukrainian positions, Ukraine tries to achieve local supperiorities of firepower and taking russian positions into pockets. That lowers your own casualties, but makes offensive operations more difficult.
Offense has been losing to defensive technology since after WW2 the major exception being ICBMs of course.
I think the expectation was for the counter offense to be fast and severe.
Only if you’ve been chugging western propaganda. It was pretty clear beforehand, and has been very clear since it “started”.
Maybe redditors will stop cheering for other people to be sent to die. But probably not.
I would really rather that people stop dying. But that choice is entirely up to the Russians, who are the ones who started and are continuing to pursue this invasion.
They could just go home and this would all be over. This is on them.
Amazing deflection of responsibility. Why are you in favor of forcing people to die for your cause? Go fight yourself.
Then there’s the denying of reality. The Russians aren’t going to go away, even if you send in more conscripts. So the plan is what exactly? Just send in more guys (not you of course) until there’s no-one left?
And you also pull the old kindergarten move of “they started it”, when you know damn well this shit has been brewing for a while. Heck, even if this were true, maybe some deescalation would be wise? But no matter, the other guys are 100% at fault for sure and so your hands are clean.
Ah, yes. Deescalate with Putin. Because he has shown himself to be such a reasonable man. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine stops existing. If Russia stops fighting, the war will be over.
The Donbas and Crimea don’t want to be part of Ukraine. The war between Donbas and Ukraine has been going on for 9 years. If the people of Donbas stop fighting, they will stop existing.
I’m not going to die for my country or my government, why do you expect Ukrainians to die for this shit?
And because you wouldn’t, clearly noone else would either, right?
Ukraine is conscripting people. They’re preventing men from leaving the country. They are clearly sending people to the front who do not want to be there.
If someone sends me to die in this way I reserve my right to kill them in self defense.
Stop cheering this on.
If you want to flee conscription, I support that. But likewise, Ukraine has the right to defend its sovereignty. As of now, most of Ukraine’s conscripts have been volunteers and, opposed to russian conscripts, they receive training in the very most cases.
And to hammer that point home, just like involuntarilly conscripted soldiers, the people in Bucha, the people in Kherson and the people in Mariupol did not choose to take part in this war. Whenever russia retreats, stories of torture, killings and abductions emerge. Leaving those people to suffer under russia is as inhumane as it gets. Not to mention, all the (war)crimes committed on russian occupied territory will never even have the chance of getting investigated if russia is allowed to hide them.
So what about the fact that
- the democtraticly elected government of the Ukraine is deciding to continue or surrender. Military aid is not forcing them to fight but helping then after they have decided to do so.
- There is little stopping Russia from attacking other regions or contries after they overtook the eastern part of Ukraine. They allready stated they see Poland and Moldova as part of the “russian world” they want to create
I do agree that there were breaches of verbal agreements by the NATO but there is rarely a more clear aggresor than when one contry invades an other. You may now start with whataboutism, the us and all the countries they invaded but two wrongs don’t make a right
The democratically elected government of Ukraine was overthrown in a western backed violent coup in 2014. What Ukraine has now is a client regime.
Nobody is being forced to die for any cause. Ukrainians are fighting Russia because Russia intends to wipe their country off the map. I don’t really see why you think you have the right to tell Ukrainians that they don’t have the right to fight for the existence of their country.
I also can not believe what war mongering people are doing, blaming only one side but also sending other people to die?
Don’t Ukrainians don’t count as people who should live? What will Ukraine look like after this war? How many decades will it take for them to recover?
And now, if you even try to mention peace, you are Putin’s shill.
And now, if you even try to mention peace, you are Putin’s shill.
No, you don’t. You are Putin’s shill if you mention peace only at Russian conditions. I’d welcome a peace where Russia leaves the occupied territories forever and stops waging war, the people of Donbass, both of Russian ethnicity and Ukranian ethnicity, get more autonomy, Tatars can go back to Crimea, Russians can vote democratically and have independent media, talk and protest without going to jail and all in all live better.
I’m against war and if everyone just lived in peace, I’d be much much happier.
I just thik that when you put conditions on peace, as you did, and those conditions, as we all know, are not possible (true, current wagner mutiny might and hopefully will change that), you are not really in for peace talks.
There are reasons Russia acted this way, and thise reasons did not change, wether we agree with their (or better even, his reasoning) does not matter. Putin did what he was talking from 2014 he will do.
I for one really hope more Russians can peacefully surrender, and that Putin’s regime ceases it bloody campaign against people’s liberties foreign and domestic.
I also hope that western nations will welcome russian people that do not wish to fight (as long as they behave that is). Not only will it send the signal that the west is not against russia itself, only against the regime, it will also rob russia of manpower.
Who would have thought! I totally didn’t see this coming! I’m absolutely not being sarcastic!
Removed by mod
the people of the donbass and luhansk voted to join russia and have been killed by ukranian artilliary for many years let them follow the will of democracy
Also Kiyv right? Because Russians tried to take that too you know And the rest of the country for that matter. And depose the democratically elected president. But yeah, tell me now, Zelensky is fascist satanist gay and other epitomes you’ll parrot straight from Putler’s lips.
The fact of the matter is, Russia invaded Ukraine like Nazi Germany did with Czechoslovakia and Poland, using the pretext of “protecting ethnic minorities” like Nazi Germany did and will be sent back, like Nazi Germany.
But sure, let Russia pursue peace in “good faith” and let them “liberate” cities by turning them to glass floors.
Tl;dr: Not many Ukrainians want to push into a longer war in Russia, they just want to get the fuck back to “normal” and rebuild and foritfy their nation.
I mean I understand western powers giving billions, expecting a massive push, but just hear me out…these people are fighting for their home. They don’t want to push into Russia and kill Russians or kill innocent people, their lives have been ruined already. War crimes have been committed against Ukraine, massive amounts of explosives detonated over entire cities. Land mines cover hundreds of miles by now, and Russia made sure to do as much damage as possible, long lasting damage. People will work hard and push hard, when they are in survival mode, and defending their lands is def something they are very righteously doing. Expecting them to counter attack and become the very thing they have rallied against, come on…the Western powers that “give” Aid, are going to want to make money, and a prolonged war with billions in sales of weapons, is of course what they want.
Ukraine just wants to rebuild, fortify and make sure this shit never happens again, what they don’t want, is to go into Russia and land grab for power. It is no mystery why the counter offensive just doesn’t have the same ferocity.
The counter offensive isn’t into Russia, it’s them trying to get back their territory which was occupied last February. Where a lot of Ukrainians currently have family members, and where we know for a fact torture of dissenters and kidnapping of children is taking place.
IIRC almost all polls show strong support from Ukrainians to take all their land back.
It’s also to get back their territory which was occupied in 2014. I think XymerianMonk is subtly implying that that territory is “Russian” now, which is pretty disgusting if so. Russia doesn’t get to seize and annex territory from its neighbours and then cry about being “invaded” when those neighbours try to take it back.
Santa Ana.
Whatabout.
Brooklynman 2
Do you realise whataboutism is not an argument. Because when you use it as one you are basically falling under the same trap. You are telling me what about santa ana, care for ukraine. Who cares about non white people, though, right?
How can such an ignorant comment even be upvoted?
They’re pushing into Ukraine still, this is a push to take back their land from Russia not a fucking march to Moscow.
